我國(guó)CPI對(duì)PPI只存在反向倒逼:理論分析與實(shí)證支持

摘要： 本文研究了CPI與PPI之間聯(lián)系機(jī)制,從理論上說(shuō)明我國(guó)CPI對(duì)PPI的反向倒逼傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制。在實(shí)證研究中,指出了線性和非線性Granger因果檢驗(yàn)等技術(shù)的不合理性,提出了用武-豪斯曼檢驗(yàn)的方法可以檢驗(yàn)CPI與PPI之間的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):在我國(guó)總體上并不存在由PPI到CPI的線性或非線性傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制;相反,我國(guó)只存在CPI對(duì)PPI的反向倒逼傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,而且CPI上升1個(gè)百分點(diǎn),PPI平均會(huì)上升0.25個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。實(shí)證結(jié)果給我們的啟示是,以燙平價(jià)格波動(dòng)為目的的宏觀調(diào)控,從需求管理方面進(jìn)行比較合理,從供給方面或者從需求和供給兩個(gè)方面進(jìn)行混合調(diào)控是不合理的。
This paper studies the relation mechanism between CPI and PPI and illustrates the anti-driving conduction mechanism from CPI to PPI.Through empirical study,the paper points out the irrationality of linear or nonlinear Granger Test and holds that Hausman Test can be used to examine the conduction mechanism between CPI and PPI.The findings show that there is no linear or nonlinear conduction mechanism from PPI to CPI;On the contrary,there is anti-driving conduction mechanism from CPI to PPI.PPI rises by 0.25% with CPI rising by 1%.The empirical result shows that macro-control is rational in order to ironing price from the perspective of demand management and is irrational from the perspective of mixing control in price and demand &supply.