最初投入推動(dòng)型IOCM的構(gòu)建與分析

摘要： 本文根據(jù)投入產(chǎn)出表二三象限之間的交叉平衡關(guān)系,構(gòu)建出最終需求拉動(dòng)型投入產(chǎn)出交叉模型(Input and output cross model),同時(shí)結(jié)合福建省2002年、2007年和2012年投入產(chǎn)出表,構(gòu)造價(jià)格換算指數(shù)編制可比價(jià)投入產(chǎn)出表,并從最初投入角度對(duì)最初投入如何推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的效應(yīng)進(jìn)行動(dòng)態(tài)比較分析。研究表明:福建省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中存在著:技術(shù)進(jìn)步對(duì)提高消費(fèi)需求的推動(dòng)作用不太明顯;固定資產(chǎn)折舊對(duì)投資需求的推動(dòng)作用較小;出口產(chǎn)品技術(shù)含量低等問(wèn)題。本文提出政府應(yīng)提高居民收入以擴(kuò)大消費(fèi)需求,優(yōu)化出口結(jié)構(gòu),調(diào)節(jié)國(guó)民收入初次分配比例,從而推動(dòng)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理調(diào)整。
According to the cross balance between the second and third quadrant of the input- output table,we build the final demand- pull input and output cross model,and combined meanwhile with the input- output table of Fujian in 2002,2007 and2012,we build the price conversion index to compile the comparable price input- output tables,so that we can analyze the effect of the primary input in promoting economic growth dynamically and comparatively from the perspective of primary input. Research shows that the economic growth of Fujian province is short of the pulling power for economy of demand,which intensifies its industry imbalance; the pulling power of net exports to the tertiary industry is not enough; and the promoting effect to advances of technology of the final demand is not obvious. Therefore,the government should expand the consumer demand,exploit the advantages of coastal export trade in services to the full,and stimulate the effective demand of science and technology to promote the technical progress of enterprises,so that we can promote the reasonable adjustment of industrial structure.