金融危機與統(tǒng)計發(fā)展

摘要： 回顧近百年來統(tǒng)計發(fā)展的歷程,經(jīng)濟或金融危機往往對統(tǒng)計帶來新的沖擊與挑戰(zhàn),成為推動統(tǒng)計變革與創(chuàng)新的動力之源。1930年代的大蕭條直接推動了國民賬戶體系(SNA)的誕生,標志著現(xiàn)代統(tǒng)計體系的基本框架正式建立,是現(xiàn)代統(tǒng)計發(fā)展史上的一個重要里程碑。1990年代頻頻爆發(fā)的金融危機引發(fā)國際統(tǒng)計準則體系的大發(fā)展、大繁榮,擴展到各個專業(yè)領(lǐng)域和各個統(tǒng)計環(huán)節(jié)。這一輪沖擊推動了現(xiàn)代統(tǒng)計的第二次革命性變革,集中體現(xiàn)為各國統(tǒng)計在規(guī)范性、標準化和國際可比性等方面顯著提升。2008年國際金融危機對統(tǒng)計影響深刻,一方面,此次危機暴露出現(xiàn)行統(tǒng)計體系存在巨大的信息缺口;另一方面,此次危機將對現(xiàn)行統(tǒng)計體系帶來新一輪變革。圍繞危機視角的信息缺口,在大數(shù)據(jù)、云計算、物聯(lián)網(wǎng)等技術(shù)飛速發(fā)展的背景下,一場新的數(shù)據(jù)革命正在悄然展開,重點涉及五大領(lǐng)域:統(tǒng)計范式、內(nèi)容體系、風險測度理論、穩(wěn)健性監(jiān)測、數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量。完善統(tǒng)計體系,彌補信息缺口,改進危機風險監(jiān)測,已成國際社會的當務之急。
Looking back at the development of statistics in the past decades,one can find that economic or financial crises usually brought new shocks and challenges to statistics.The Great Depression in the 1930s directly led to the buildup of the System of National Accounts(SNA), which marked the formal establishment of the basic framework of modern statistical system,a milestone in the history of statistical development.Similarly,the frequent outbreaks of financial crises in the 1990s led to the second revolution of statistics,expanding international statistical standards into various professional fields and improving the standardization and international comparability of statistics in different economies.The 2008 global financial crisis also had a profound impact on statistics and identified significant information gaps in the statistical system.On the other hand,it has also led to another revolutionary development of statistics.Against the backdrop of fast development of such technologies as big data,cloud computing and internet of things,a new statistical revolution is unfolding in the following fields:1)statistical paradigm;2)content system;3)risk measurement;4)stability monitoring;and 5)data quality.It is urgent for the international community to improve the statistical system,fill the information gap,and improve monitoring of crisis risks.