中國GDP核算誤差的估算框架

摘要： 關(guān)于中國GDP數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量評估與核算誤差估算的研究和實踐,至今未能形成公認(rèn)的方法體系和有形的成果序列。中國GDP核算誤差的估算框架的構(gòu)建,有助于推進該領(lǐng)域研究的體系化。該框架主要包含兩層面內(nèi)容:一是根據(jù)核算原理對GDP指標(biāo)進行全方位分解,盡可能地將誤差來源予以細(xì)化,并與現(xiàn)有的局部估算研究建立對應(yīng)關(guān)系;二是遵循局部調(diào)整、邊際改進的技術(shù)思路,對GDP(及其誤差)各個組成部分的外部估算結(jié)果進行銜接和重組,通過序貫逼近,最終建立針對官方數(shù)據(jù)的較具可信度的替代性數(shù)據(jù)序列和數(shù)據(jù)集。該框架滿足GDP數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量評估研究在理論基礎(chǔ)可靠性、技術(shù)可行性、問題可辨識性以及系統(tǒng)兼容性等方面的要求,可以為該領(lǐng)域研究成果的系統(tǒng)整合以及對于中國統(tǒng)計實踐的指導(dǎo)價值的切實發(fā)揮提供穩(wěn)健的方法平臺。
The paper aims to construct a framework for the estimation of China's GDP accounting errors. The framework comprises two principal components. One is about how to decompose the GDP indicator and its data series according to the national accounting principle and how to identify types of error sources in GDP accounting in detail. And the other considers ways to link up existing estimations with each other and recombine them to generate substitution with more reliability for official GDP data sets. With this estimation framework,various research achievements in the field will be integrated,and total research function on official statistical quality management will be realized.