融合新型偏好度模型和改進累積前景理論的決策方法

摘要： 針對決策問題的不確定性和復(fù)雜性以及屬性權(quán)重和專家權(quán)重未知等特征,提出一種融合新型偏好度模型和改進累積前景理論的決策方法。首先,定義群決策問題的基本框架,將屬性值和心理參考點改進為區(qū)間值;其次,根據(jù)區(qū)間心理參考點的二維幾何表示定義新型偏好度模型,由此確定屬性權(quán)重和專家權(quán)重;再次,聚合專家意見,考慮專家心理行為,由屬性值和區(qū)間心理參考點的位置關(guān)系,得到收益值和損失值的計算公式,進而確定各方案的總前景值及排序關(guān)系;最后,通過案例分析和方法對比驗證該方法的有效性、可行性和實用性。
In view of the uncertainty and complexity of decision-making problems,as well as the unknown weights of the attributes and the experts,a decision-making method based on new preference model and improved cumulative prospect theory is proposed.Firstly,the basic framework of the group decision-making problem is defined,and the attribute values and the psychological reference points are improved to the interval values.Secondly,the new preference model is defined according to the two-dimensional geometric representation of the interval psychological reference points to determine the attribute weights and the expert weights.Thirdly,the experts' opinion and psychological behavior are taken into account.Based on the positional relationship between the attribute values and the interval psychological reference points,the formulas of gains and losses are obtained,and then the overall prospect values and ranking relationship of each alternative are determined.Finally,the case analysis and comparison illustrate the validity,feasibility and practicability of the proposed method.