基于賬戶參考利率的FISIM對GDP與收入分配的影響研究

摘要： 本文從使用者成本的角度解析參考利率,并根據(jù)2008年SNA構建用于我國FISIM核算的賬戶參考利率,利用實際數(shù)據(jù)核算并分攤現(xiàn)價FISIM總產(chǎn)出;借鑒聯(lián)合國國民經(jīng)濟核算工作組關于FISIM價格指數(shù)的思想,結合我國存貸款特點,構建存貸款服務價格指數(shù),并縮減現(xiàn)價FISIM;最后,分析現(xiàn)價FISIM對GDP與收入分配的影響,并探究不變價FISIM對實際GDP的影響。研究結果表明,住戶部門分攤的FISIM與凈出口分攤的FISIM會增加GDP。各機構部門的初次分配總收入和可支配總收入也因增加值、財產(chǎn)收入及經(jīng)常轉移等的變化而相應變化。不變價FISIM對經(jīng)濟增長波動率的影響大于其對經(jīng)濟增長率的影響。
This paper analyzes the reference rates from the perspective of user cost, constructs the account reference rates for China's FISIM based on the SNA 2008, and calculates and apportions the current FISIM total output using the actual data. Drawing on the ideas of the United Nations Working Group on National Accounts on the FISIM price index, and in view of the characteristics of China's deposits and loans, it builds up the price index of deposit and loan services, and deflates the FISIM at current prices. Finally, it studies the impact of FISIM at current prices on GDP and income distribution and explores the impact of FISIM at constant prices on GDP in real term. Based on the accounts and analysis, it is found that the share of FISIM from the household sector and the net export share of FISIM upswing the GDP, and the impact is greater on GDP than on gross national income. The initial distribution of gross and total disposable income in various institutional sectors also varies as the value added, property income and current transfers change. The impact of FISIM at constant prices is greater on the volatility rate of the real GDP growth than on the real GDP growth rate.