中國服務業(yè)全要素生產率的再測算與影響因素分析

摘要： 在服務業(yè)高質量發(fā)展大背景下,本文采用半?yún)?shù)的OP法,對中國自2007-2016年間服務業(yè)全要素生產率進行了測算。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):在服務業(yè)細分行業(yè)中,房地產和金融業(yè)等共計7個行業(yè)的技術進步程度,在直觀上要高于公共管理和社會組織以及衛(wèi)生、社會保障和社會福利業(yè)等行業(yè)。在分地區(qū)中,北京、上海、浙江、廣東等地的技術進步程度明顯高于中西部省區(qū)市。從增長趨勢來看,服務業(yè)內部不同行業(yè)之間增減不一,但自2007年以來,中國服務業(yè)全要素生產率整體呈現(xiàn)出明顯的遞增態(tài)勢。雖然部分行業(yè)在技術進步方面存在短板,但從發(fā)展趨勢來看,這些差距正在明顯縮小。在四大經濟區(qū)域中,除了西部地區(qū)呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢外,東部、中部和東北地區(qū)的服務業(yè)全要素生產率明顯上升。從影響因素來看,服務業(yè)發(fā)展水平、城市化率、貿易依存度和人口出生率,都是促進服務業(yè)全要素生產率增長的重要變量。據(jù)此,應實行大力促進服務業(yè)"提質增效"、穩(wěn)步提升城市化發(fā)展水平、促進對外貿易平穩(wěn)健康發(fā)展和出臺切實有效的人口管理辦法等政策措施。
This paper uses the semi-parametric OP method(Olley and Pakes, 1996) to measure the total factor productivity of the service industry in China from 2007 to 2016. The study found that in the subsectors of the service industry, the degree of technological progress of seven industries, including real estate and finance, is higher than that of public management and social organizations, as well as health, social security and social welfare industries intuitively. In the sub-regions, the degree of technological progress of Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places is significantly higher than that of the central and western provinces and cities. From the perspective of growth trends, there are different increases and decreases between different industries within the service industry. However, since 2007, the total factor productivity of China's service industry has shown a significant increase. Although some industries have shortcomings in technological progress, these gaps are shrinking significantly in terms of development trends.Among the four major economic regions, in addition to the downward trend in the western region,the total factor productivity of the service industry in the eastern, central and northeastern regions of China has increased significantly. From the perspective of influencing factors, the level of service industry development, urbanization rate, trade dependence and birth rate are all important variables to promote the growth of total factor productivity in the service industry.