基于粗糙集的應急案例中概率規(guī)則挖掘方法

摘要： 應急案例作為描述突發(fā)事件發(fā)生、發(fā)展及應對過程的文本,蘊含了潛在的規(guī)律與寶貴的經(jīng)驗。為了挖掘應急案例中各要素間潛在的關聯(lián)關系,構建出基于粗糙集的應急案例中概率規(guī)則挖掘方法。首先,構建出應急案例知識五元組,描述應急案例共性特征,并將諸多應急案例信息組織成一張應急案例決策表;然后,應用遺傳算法對應急案例決策表進行屬性約簡,進而獲取概率規(guī)則;最后,以大興安嶺林區(qū)50起重特大火災案例為例,闡述方法的具體執(zhí)行過程,并通過兩組測試實驗證明了方法的可行性和有效性。該方法描述了應急案例的共性本體特征,具有較高的可重用性,有利于為決策者采取應急管理措施提供決策支持。
As texts describing the process of occurrence,development and response of emergencies,emergency cases contain underlying laws and valuable experience. In order to mine the potential relationship among the elements in the emergency cases,the probability rule mining method based on rough set is developed. First,we build a knowledge quintuple to describe the common features of emergency cases,and the information of emergency cases are organized into a decision table; then we use genetic algorithms to reduce the attributes of the decision table of emergency cases,and thus the probability rules can be acquired. Finally,taking the case of 50 cases of heavy fire in Daxinganling forest area as an example,the concrete implementation process of the method is expounded,and two groups of testing experiments prove the feasibility and validity of the method. This method describes the common ontology characteristics of emergency cases,having high reusability,and it is helpful to provide decision support for decision-makers to take emergency management measures.