2016版CSNA有關(guān)FISIM系列修訂及其影響的定量測(cè)度

摘要： 《中國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)核算體系(2016)》就FISIM核算主體、核算范圍、核算方法、分?jǐn)偡椒ㄟM(jìn)行了修訂。本文較系統(tǒng)地考察了系列修訂對(duì)FISIM產(chǎn)出和支出法GDP的影響路徑,定量測(cè)算了系列修訂對(duì)核心經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)的具體影響效果。本文的測(cè)算結(jié)果表明,因采用2016版CSNA方法進(jìn)行核算,FISIM產(chǎn)出提高了21. 83%,其中,核算主體修訂引致的"拓展效應(yīng)"、核算范圍修訂引致的"縮減效應(yīng)"和核算方法修訂引致的"調(diào)整效應(yīng)"分別貢獻(xiàn)了FISIM產(chǎn)出規(guī)模提升的69. 77%、-72. 78%、103. 03%。FISIM系列修訂使生產(chǎn)法GDP規(guī)模提高了0. 33%。盡管第一次經(jīng)濟(jì)普查時(shí)已經(jīng)過(guò)一次調(diào)整,FISIM分?jǐn)偡椒ǖ脑俅握{(diào)整仍將推動(dòng)支出法GDP提升,并使得最終消費(fèi)率提升至51. 33%,凈出口率提升至3. 62%。FISIM核算方法的系列修訂不僅更客觀地反映出經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的提升與經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化,也更準(zhǔn)確地刻畫(huà)了利率市場(chǎng)化對(duì)我國(guó)金融中介服務(wù)的影響。
China's System of National Accounts( CSNA) 2016 revised the accounting body,accounting scope,accounting method and allocation method of FISIM. This paper systematically inspects the impact path of a series of revision on FISIM output and expenditure-based GDP,and quantitatively measures the specific impact of the above revision on the core economic indicators. The calculation results show that the FISIM output scale based CSNA 2016 method has increased by 21. 83%,among which the"expansion effect"caused by the revision of the accounting body,the "reduction effect" caused by the revision of the accounting scope,and the "adjustment effect" caused by the revision of the accounting method respectively contributed 69. 77%,-72. 78%,and 103. 03% of the increase in FISIM output. The series of revision of FISIM increased the production-based GDP by an average of 0. 33%. Although one adjustment has been made in the first economic census,the re-adjustment of the FISIM allocation method has further increased the size of the expenditure-based GDP,increasing the final consumption rate and net export rate to 51. 33% and 3. 62% respectively. The series of revision of the FISIM accounting method not only more objectively reflect the improvement of economic aggregates and the optimization of economic structure,but also more accurately portray the impact of interest rate liberalization on China's financial intermediary services.