中國第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展空間溢出效應(yīng)的統(tǒng)計檢驗

摘要： 通過我國第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的空間溢出效應(yīng)分析,可以找出影響我國第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的省域特征,進(jìn)而為各地區(qū)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整與升級提供科學(xué)的依據(jù)。通過莫蘭Ⅰ指數(shù)的空間自相關(guān)檢驗發(fā)現(xiàn),我國大陸31個省(市、區(qū))第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展情況具有空間溢出效應(yīng),且存在明顯的空間正相關(guān)關(guān)系;利用面板數(shù)據(jù)空間杜賓模型發(fā)現(xiàn)勞動力投入情況、地區(qū)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)資本投入情況以及消費者購買力對第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的增長具有顯著正向影響,相鄰地區(qū)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)勞動力對本地區(qū)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)起顯著負(fù)向作用,相鄰地區(qū)資本投入對本地區(qū)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)起顯著正向作用。
By analyzing the spatial spillover effect of the development of the tertiary industry in China, we can find out the provincial characteristics that affect the development of tertiary industry in China, and provide scientific basis for the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure in various regions. Through the test of spatial autocorrelation of Moran Ⅰ index, it is found that the development of tertiary industry in 31 provinces(cities and districts) in mainland China has spatial spillover effect, with obvious spatial positive correlation. Using the spatial Durbin model of panel data, it is found that labor force input, regional tertiary industry capital input and consumer purchasing power have significant positive effects on the growth of tertiary industry; the labor force of the tertiary industry in neighboring areas plays a significant negative role in the tertiary industry, and the capital input of neighboring regions has a significant positive effect on the tertiary industry.