中國服務(wù)業(yè)增長和波動的區(qū)制轉(zhuǎn)換與非對稱性研究

摘要： 在當前服務(wù)業(yè)景氣"微波化"的背景下,采用四區(qū)制馬爾科夫混頻動態(tài)因子模型,從增長速度和波動強度的雙重角度對中國服務(wù)業(yè)景氣不同階段的運行特征進行詳細考察。結(jié)果表明,中國服務(wù)業(yè)景氣波動主要呈現(xiàn)低增長―低波動狀態(tài),其次為高增長―低波動狀態(tài),且不同階段之間的轉(zhuǎn)移概率呈現(xiàn)非對稱性;中國服務(wù)業(yè)在經(jīng)濟新常態(tài)背景下可能會在以低增長―低波動為主要特征的"L"型底部運行,也可能會在低波動水平上呈現(xiàn)高增長和低增長狀態(tài)交替的"W"型波動態(tài)勢。
In the current context,China's service sector is in the stage of narrowing-fluctuation cycles.Markov-switching process is applied to the intercept item and variance item of the mixed frequency dynamic factor model.A detailed investigation is conducted to analyze the service sector's cyclical characteristics on different states,which from angles of the growth rate and fluctuation degree.The results indicate that service sector's cyclical fluctuation is dominated by "low growth-low fluctuation" state,and "high growth-low fluctuation" is the second last state.There is asymmetry in the transition probability between different states.In the context of the new normal in China,service sector might run on the bottom of L-shape pattern with the characteristic of "low growth-low fluctuation" or appear a W-shape pattern with the characteristic of "high growth" and "low growth" states alternate on the low-fluctuation level.