摘要： 本文將Stone-Geary偏好嵌套到CD-CES效用函數(shù)中,構建了基于非位似偏好下的服務貿(mào)易模型,并把總需求分解為需求結構與需求規(guī)模,從理論上推導出相對需求結構與需求規(guī)模對服務業(yè)出口的本地市場效應(home market effect,HME);同時基于2000—2014年42個國家或地區(qū)間29個服務業(yè)分行業(yè)雙邊貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù),計算發(fā)現(xiàn)世界各國分行業(yè)服務業(yè)需求收入彈性差異顯著,呈現(xiàn)出明顯的非位似特征,并首次從實證上驗證了世界整體服務業(yè)出口存在需求結構作用的反向HME和非線性HME;并發(fā)現(xiàn)當相對市場規(guī)模越大時,相對需求結構的反向效應越強。分類型情形下,消費性服務業(yè)需求結構作用的反向HME及其非線性效應均高于生產(chǎn)性服務業(yè),而生產(chǎn)性服務業(yè)需求規(guī)模作用的HME高于消費性服務業(yè);不同類別收入水平國家之間需求結構和需求規(guī)模作用的HME差異顯著。據(jù)此,擴大內需規(guī)模、優(yōu)化需求結構,結合供給側結構改革倒逼服務業(yè)創(chuàng)新,構建外貿(mào)增長和收入合理分配并行的激勵政策體系等,對一國邁向服務業(yè)大國乃至強國具有重要的政策意義。 In recent years, global service trade has grown faster than goods trade, and has become an engine for world trade growth. According to the database of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, the average annual growth rate of service exports from emerging markets and developing countries was 8.50%from 1980 to 2017, higher than that of developed countries during the same period(6.87%). The share of developing countries in world service export has increased from 21.03% to 31.80%. Why did this happen? Krugman ascribed this result to home-market effects(HMEs); that is, a larger scale of domestic demand brings a larger scale of exports. However, developed countries tend to have a larger domestic demand scale for services but slower export growth in the real world. We believe that home-market effect theory tends only to consider the demand scale, ignoring the difference in demand structure. That is, consumers' preferences are heterogeneous and the income elasticities for different products are different; these are denoted non-homothetic preferences. Under non-homothetic preferences, the demand structure will affect service exports in addition to the demand scale, and there may be anti-HMEs resulting from demand structure. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to examine the home-market effects of service exports and their possible non-linear effects from the perspective of demand structure.In this study, we construct a service trade model with non-homothetic preferences by incorporating the Stone-Geary preferences into the CD-CES utility function. We decompose the total demand into demand scale and demand structure to theoretically deduce the HMEs of demand scale and demand structure on service exports.In the empirical analysis, we first apply Caron et al.'s(2014) method and combine data from the world input-output table and the Center for Prospective Studies and International Information(CEPII) database from 2000 to 2014 to calculate the income elasticities for 29 service industries in 42 countries or regions, which we use to measure the demand structure. Second, we use ordinary least squares analysis, FE and other regression methods to investigate the HMEs of demand scale and demand structure in world service exports. Third, a panel threshold model is used to investigate the non-linear HMEs of world service exports. Fourth, we divide our samples into different types to investigate the HMEs of demand scale and demand structure and their non-linear characteristics, such as producer services and consumer services, and service trade between countries with different developmental levels. Finally, we conduct robustness checks by changing the measurement of core variables, removing data from abnormal years and using different regression methods(such as Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood regression).We find that the income elasticities of service industries vary substantially between countries, which confirms their non-homothetic characteristics. Under non-homothetic preferences, the world service industry shows substantial anti-HMEs of demand structure and positive HMEs of demand scale, which verifies the predictions of our theoretical model. Moreover, when the market is larger, the reverse effect of demand structure is stronger, which confirms the non-linearity of HMEs. In the subsample study, the HMEs of demand scale in producer services are greater than those in consumer services, while the anti-HMEs and their non-linear effects of demand structure in consumer services are greater than those in producer services. The HMEs for service exports also vary substantially between countries with different income levels. Among these countries, there are anti-HMEs of demand structure and anti-HMEs of demand scale between countries with high levels of economic development.In contrast, there are positive HMEs of demand structure and positive HMEs of demand scale between countries with low levels of economic development. In addition, there are anti-HMEs of demand structure and positive HMEs of demand scale between countries with high and low levels of development, which is consistent with the conclusion of the baseline regression. We thus find that when expanding the demand scale, it is most important to optimize the demand structure to force service innovation and reform from the supply side. Moreover, home-market advantages in both aspects should be used to construct incentive policy systems that balance foreign trade growth and equitable income distribution. This approach will enable a country to develop an excellent service economy, thereby enhancing its economic power.
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