美國智庫對“冰上絲綢之路”倡議的認知及啟示

摘要： [目的/意義]準(zhǔn)確研判美國智庫對"冰上絲綢之路"倡議的認知,是分析美國對"冰上絲綢之路"倡議的輿論走向及戰(zhàn)略認知至關(guān)重要的一環(huán),也是研判美國北極政策的重要指標(biāo)。[方法/過程]選取美國6家主流智庫作為研究樣本,對2017年6月以來發(fā)布的代表性研究文獻進行考察發(fā)現(xiàn),美國智庫對"冰上絲綢之路"倡議的關(guān)注集中在中國的動機和倡議可能產(chǎn)生的影響兩個方面。部分學(xué)者持理性態(tài)度,多數(shù)學(xué)者充滿質(zhì)疑與擔(dān)憂。智庫通過與美國對中國快速崛起的戰(zhàn)略判斷保持一致、為卸任政府官員提供研究職位以及采用多元化的傳播方式等手段擴大其認知觀點的影響力。[結(jié)果/結(jié)論]由多種因素交互影響而形成的負面認知的傳播將影響官方政策取向并干擾其他國家對倡議的理解。中國應(yīng)在戰(zhàn)略與戰(zhàn)術(shù)層面采取措施,有針對性地加強國際話語運作,構(gòu)建有利于"冰上絲綢之路"建設(shè)的輿論環(huán)境,推動"冰上絲綢之路"建設(shè)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Purpose/Significance]It is not only a crucial part of analyzing the US public opinions and strategic cognition of the "Polar Silk Road" initiative, but also an important indicator of judging the US Arctic policy, that we need accurately research and judge the recognition of the "Polar Silk Road" initiative of US think tanks.[Method/Process]Six mainstream US think tanks are selected as samples. Through the study of representative literature on "Polar Silk Road" published after June, 2017, we can find that US think tanks pay more attention on two aspects of China's motivation and potential influences. Some scholars are with rational attitudes while most scholars hold negative perception and full of concerns. The think tanks expand their influences of their perceptions by aligning with the US strategic community's judgment on China's rapid rise, providing research positions for outgoing government officials, and adopting diverse propagation approaches.[Result/Conclusion]The negative perception of think tanks is formed by the interaction of multiple factors, and the propagation of negative perception of think tanks will affect official policy orientation and interfere with other countries' judgments. China should take measures both at the strategic and tactical levels, strengthening the international discourse operation, building a good international public opinion environment for the construction of "Polar Silk Road", and promoting its sustainable development.