EPC總分包交易成本影響因素系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)仿真研究

摘要： 為有效控制EPC總分包交易成本,基于系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)理論,探索交互作用下各因素對交易成本作用的動態(tài)發(fā)展規(guī)律。首先,識別、分析總分包交易成本與其影響因素之間因果關(guān)系;其次,構(gòu)建交互作用下各因素動態(tài)作用的SD模型;最后,揭示各因素作用規(guī)律及動態(tài)調(diào)控機理。結(jié)果表明:系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)能夠有效模擬各因素對交易成本的動態(tài)影響,對模型中的變量進(jìn)行敏感性測試并提出有效控制性策略。
In order to effectively control the transaction cost between general contractor and sub-contractor of EPC, based on the theory of system dynamics, this paper explores the dynamic effects of various factors on transaction costs under the interaction. First,it identifies and analyzes the relationship between transaction cost of EPC and its factors. Second, it establishes SD model of the dynamic effects among various factors under the interaction. Third, the paper reveals development regularity of the factors and dynamic regulation mechanism. The simulation results show that the system dynamical model could effectively simulate the dynamic effects of various factors on transaction costs. Finally, it tests the sensitivity analyses of variable, and puts forward three effective control strategies.