我國銀行業(yè)資本緩沖的周期性及其經(jīng)濟效應(yīng)研究——基于銀行信貸供給機制的視角

摘要： 全球性金融危機引發(fā)了學(xué)者們對銀行資本緩沖周期性及其經(jīng)濟效應(yīng)的爭論,銀行計提資本緩沖會通過影響其信貸供給對實體經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生溢出效應(yīng),因而研究其周期性問題意義重大。本文采用我國87家商業(yè)銀行的數(shù)據(jù),對我國銀行業(yè)資本緩沖的周期性進行了實證研究。結(jié)果顯示:我國銀行業(yè)的資本緩沖整體上不具有周期性。但是,不同類型銀行的資本緩沖卻表現(xiàn)出差異化的周期性特征,特別是大型銀行的資本緩沖具有逆周期性,其通過對信貸供給過度波動的約束作用,能在一定程度上緩解經(jīng)濟的周期性波動。本文的這些結(jié)論可為監(jiān)管部門的資本監(jiān)管改革提供經(jīng)驗支持,同時為逆周期資本緩沖工具的使用提供一定的決策依據(jù)。
The global financial crisis has triggered scholars' debates on the cyclicality of bank capital buffer and its economic effect.Bank capital buffer will generate spillover effects on the real economy by affecting credit supply,and the research on its cyclicality has important implications.Using data from 87 commercial banks,this paper tests empirically the cyclical effect of bank capital buffers in China.Our results show that there exists generally no cyclical effect and the implied hypothesis within the traditional test framework might not be valid either in China.However,for state-owned banks,there exists a countercyclical effect.Our conclusions have policy implication for implementing the capital buffer as a countercyclical tool effectively.