“救命稻草”到“金融瘟疫”的蹺蹺板——中小企業(yè)聯(lián)保貸款的案例與演化博弈分析

摘要： 2012年始,我國長三角地區(qū)中小企業(yè)聯(lián)保貸款違約的傳染被人稱為一場"金融瘟疫"。但聯(lián)保貸款的融資方式亦曾被中小企業(yè)視為"救命稻草",這種轉(zhuǎn)變緣何而來?今后的中小企業(yè)聯(lián)保貸款又何去何從?本文基于對上海鋼鐵貿(mào)易行業(yè)的聯(lián)保貸款案例分析,得出從"救命稻草"轉(zhuǎn)變至"金融瘟疫"的關(guān)鍵因素——貸款額度、內(nèi)部懲罰和外部沖擊。其后,將這些因素納入到演化博弈的分析框架中,得到聯(lián)保貸款的"還款蹺蹺板":還款的人和不還款的人分坐在蹺蹺板的兩端。最后,基于"還款蹺蹺板"給出了一些政策建議:蹺蹺板支點(diǎn)控制——增加內(nèi)部懲罰和控制適度信貸規(guī)模,可以提高聯(lián)保貸款抵御外部沖擊的能力;改蹺蹺板為平衡木——為避免巨大外部沖擊帶來的違約傳染,可解除連帶責(zé)任改為信用貸款;長大了就別來玩蹺蹺板——聯(lián)保貸款不適合長大的商戶。
After 2012,the contagion of loan defaults in the middle and small business'group lending has been called a financial contagion in the Yangtze River delta.The financial mode of group lending was used to be a life-saving straw of middle and small companies.What is the future of group lending in middle and small business? In this paper,case study has been done on the group lending in Shanghai's steel trade industry.On this basis,it gets the keys of group lending which make it transfer from life-saving straw to financial contagion.Those keys are the size of the loan,the inner penalty and the outer shock.Then those factors are put into evolutionary game model.After calculation of the model,this paper finds the seesaw of repayment in the group lending.On this seesaw,the person who repay the loans and the person who do not repay the loans sit on the two ends.Based on the seesaw of repayment,this paper gives some suggestion on policies in the future.First,control the place of seesaw's pivot through increasing the inner penalty and maintaining a suitable size of loan.This way can enhance the group lending's ability of defense from outer shocks.Second,change the seesaw to balance beam.That means changing the group lending to credit loans.This way can void the contagion of defaults when there is a bigger shock.Third,do not play seesaws when you have grown up,because group lending is not suitable for big business.